Maonekedwe ndi mtundu wabizinesi wakusungirako mphamvumu dongosolo mphamvu akukhala momveka bwino.Pakalipano, njira yoyendetsera msika yosungira mphamvu kumadera otukuka monga United States ndi Europe yakhazikitsidwa.Kusintha kwa machitidwe a mphamvu m'misika yomwe ikubwera ikuchulukiranso.Kukula kwakukulu kwamakampani osungira mphamvu Mikhalidwe yakhwima, ndipo makampani osungira mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi adzaphulika mu 2023.
Europe: Kutsika kolowera, kukula kwakukulu, komanso kusungirako mphamvu kwafika pamlingo wina watsopano
Pansi pavuto lamphamvu la ku Europe, kukwera bwino kwachuma kwa kusungidwa kwa dzuwa kwapanyumba ku Europe kwadziwika ndi msika, ndipo kufunikira kosungirako dzuwa kwayamba kuphulika.Njira yopangira mgwirizano wamtengo wanyumba.Mu 2023, mtengo wamagetsi wamakontrakitala omwe angosainidwa kumene udzakwera kwambiri.Mtengo wamagetsi wapakati udzakhala woposa 40 euro / MWh, kuwonjezeka kwa 80-120% pachaka.Zikuyembekezeka kupitilizabe kukhala ndi mitengo yayikulu m'zaka zikubwerazi za 1-2, ndipo kufunikira kolimba kosungirako dzuwa kumawonekera.
Germany imachotsa msonkho wapakhomo wa photovoltaic VAT ndi msonkho wandalama, ndipo mfundo zoyendetsera ndalama zosungiramo nyumba ku Italy zachotsedwa.Ndondomeko yabwino ikupitirirabe.Kubweza kwanyumba yaku Germany kutha kufika 18.3%.Poganizira nthawi yobwezera ya subsidy ikhoza kufupikitsidwa kukhala zaka 7-8.Mphamvu yodziyimira payokha yanthawi yayitali, kuchuluka kwa malo osungiramo nyumba ku Europe mu 2021 ndi 1.3% yokha, pali malo okulirapo, ndipo misika yamafakitale, yamalonda ndi yayikulu yosungira ikukulanso mwachangu.
Tikuyerekeza kuti kufunikira kwa mphamvu zatsopano zosungira mphamvu ku Europe mu 2023/2025 kudzakhala 30GWh/104GWh, kuwonjezeka kwa 113% mu 2023, ndi CAGR=93.8% mu 2022-2025.
United States: Polimbikitsidwa ndi ndondomeko ya ITC, miliri inayamba
United States ndiye msika waukulu kwambiri wosungirako zinthu padziko lonse lapansi.Mu 2022Q1-3, mphamvu yoyika yosungirako mphamvu ku United States inali 3.57GW/10.67GWh, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 102%/93%.
Pofika mu Novembala, mphamvu zolembetsedwa zafika 22.5GW.Mu 2022, mphamvu yatsopano yokhazikitsidwa ya photovoltaics idzachepa, koma kusungirako mphamvu kudzakhalabe kukula mofulumira.Mu 2023, mphamvu yoyika mphamvu ya photovoltaic idzayenda bwino, ndipo kuchuluka kwa malo osungiramo mphamvu zowonjezera kudzapitirira kuwonjezeka, kuthandizira kuphulika kwa mphamvu zosungirako zosungirako.
Kugwirizana pakati pa ogulitsa magetsi ku United States ndi kosauka, kusungirako mphamvu kumakhala ndi phindu lothandizira malamulo, mautumiki owonjezera amatsegulidwa, kuchuluka kwa malonda ndipamwamba, ndipo mtengo wamagetsi wa PPA ndi wokwera ndipo mtengo wosungirako ndi woonekeratu.Ngongole ya msonkho ya ITC imakulitsidwa kwa zaka 10 ndipo chiŵerengero cha ngongole chikuwonjezeka kufika 30% -70%.Kwa nthawi yoyamba, kusungirako mphamvu zodziimira payekha kumaphatikizidwa mu subsidy, zomwe zimalimbikitsa kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa chiwerengero cha kubwerera.
Tikuyerekeza kuti kufunikira kwa mphamvu zatsopano zosungira mphamvu ku United States mu 2023/2025 kudzakhala 36/111GWh motsatana, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka ndi 117% mu 2023, ndi CAGR = 88.5% mu 2022-2025.
China: Kufunika kwa malamulo onenepa kukuchulukirachulukira, ndipo msika wa 100 biliyoni wa yuan wayamba kuwonekera.
Kugawidwa kovomerezeka kwapakhomo kumatsimikizira kuwonjezeka kwa kusungirako mphamvu.Mu 2022Q1-3, mphamvu yoyikapo ndi 0.93GW/1.91GWh, ndipo gawo la zosungirako zazikulu munyumbayi limaposa 93%.Malinga ndi ziwerengero zonse, kuyitanitsa anthu kuti asunge mphamvu mu 2022 kudzafika 41.6GWh.Njira yosungiramo mphamvu yogawana ikufalikira mofulumira, ndipo kubwezeredwa kwa mphamvu, msika wamagetsi, ndi nthawi yogawana kusiyana kwamitengo kumayendetsedwa pang'onopang'ono kuti muwonjezere mphamvu yobwereranso.
Tikuyerekeza kuti kufunikira kwa mphamvu zatsopano zosungiramo mphamvu zapakhomo mu 2023/2025 kudzakhala 33/118GWh motsatana, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka ndi 205% mu 2023, ndi CAGR = 122.2% mu 2022-2025.
Matekinoloje atsopano monga mabatire a sodium-ion, mabatire amadzimadzi oyenda, kusungirako mphamvu ya photothermal, ndi kusungirako mphamvu yokoka akuyendetsedwa ndikutsimikiziridwa pang'onopang'ono pamapeto abizinesi.Limbikitsani kasamalidwe ka chitetezo chosungira mphamvu, ndipo pang'onopang'ono muwonjezere kuchuluka kwa malowedwe othamanga kwambiri, makina oziziritsa amadzimadzi, ndi chitetezo cha Pack fire.Kutumiza kwa mabatire osungira mphamvu kumasiyanitsidwa momveka bwino, ndipo makampani a inverter ali ndi mwayi wolowera PCS.
Kutengedwa palimodzi: misika yayikulu itatu ku China, United States ndi Europe yaphulika
Chifukwa cha kufalikira kwa malo osungiramo zinthu zazikulu zaku China-US komanso kusungirako nyumba zaku Europe, tikulosera kuti mphamvu yosungira mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi idzakhala 120/402GWh mu 2023/2025, kuwonjezeka kwa 134% mu 2023, ndi CAGR ya 98.8% mu 2022. -2025.
Pambali yopereka, olowa atsopano mumakampani osungira mphamvu atuluka, ndipo ma chiteshi ndi mfumu.Mapangidwe a maselo a batri ndi okhazikika.CATL imakhala yoyamba padziko lonse lapansi potengera kutumiza, ndipo kutumiza kwa BYD EVE Pine Energy kwasunga kukula mwachangu;ma inverters osungira mphamvu amayang'ana pamayendedwe ndi ntchito zamtundu, ndipo kuchuluka kwa kapangidwe kake kwakula.Kuthekera kwa dzuwa kwa IGBT kutsimikizira kuti kuperekedwa kuli kolimba Msika waukulu wosungirako katundu umakhala wotsogola kwambiri, ma inverters osungiramo nyumba amasangalala ndi kukula kwakukulu, ndipo kutumizidwa kwa atsogoleri osungiramo nyumba kwawonjezeka kangapo motsatizana.
Pansi pa kusinthika kwamphamvu kwa mphamvu, kuchepetsa mtengo wa malo opangira magetsi a photovoltaic kudzayambitsa chiwongoladzanja cha kuika mu 2023, chomwe chidzafulumizitse kuphulika kwa malo osungirako zinthu ku China ndi United States;kusungirako nyumba kudzaphulika ku Ulaya mu 2022, ndipo idzapitirira kawiri mu 2023. Kusungirako nyumba m'madera omwe akutukuka kumene monga United States ndi Southeast Asia Zidzakhalanso chikhalidwe chodziwika bwino, ndipo kusungirako mphamvu kudzabweretsa nthawi ya golide ya chitukuko.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jan-05-2023